War and heatwaves threaten to push bread and pasta prices higher
Bread and pasta face price spikes as conflict and extreme heat converge
What consumers can expect on the shelf
Poinews.com – The global food price index is projected to climb 11.8% in 2026 before easing to a 4.8% increase in 2027, per Oxford Economics. Crops — grains, fruit, vegetables — and dairy products will bear the brunt of the shock. Processed items such as bread, cheese, wine, and cooking oil will follow, while meat prices are anticipated to remain comparatively insulated.
For fresh produce, the price transmission is expected to be relatively fast, with consumer-facing effects surfacing within two to three months. Processed goods, however, carry longer lags tied to harvest and manufacturing cycles. The peak impact on those shelves is projected for roughly six to nine months out.
That timeline places fresh-food price effects between October and November 2026, and the heaviest processed-food price pressure between February and May 2027.
European harvests under siege
Europe's summer heatwave and accompanying drought have already inflicted serious damage on cereal crops. Coceral, the Brussels-based European cereals and oilseeds trade association, issued an unusual mid-year revision in July, trimming its combined EU-27 and UK grain-harvest outlook from 295.5 million tonnes down to 286.6 million tonnes — a figure well below the 310 million tonnes gathered in 2025.
Germany's grain output is forecast to contract by 7% this year, according to AFP, citing a Tuesday warning from the German Farmers' Association. The association projected production at 41.9 million tonnes.
War-driven input costs
Beyond the weather, farmers are contending with sharply elevated energy and fertiliser costs. Oxford Economics attributes the most significant global food-price pressure to the US-Iran conflict and its knock-on effects on production inputs — principally oil (diesel), natural gas, and fertiliser.
"The most significant impact on food prices globally stems from the 'US-Iran war and its impact on inputs for food production, mainly oil (diesel), natural gas and fertiliser,'" Senior Economist Tomas Dvorak told Euronews Business.
Global diesel prices jumped 36% year on year in July, partly on the back of Strait of Hormuz disruptions linked to the Iran war. Fertiliser prices are forecast to climb by 22% over the course of 2026.
Black Sea grain flows at risk
The Ukraine war compounds the problem. Cereals represent 25% of the global food price index, and Russia and Ukraine together supply just under 30% of total world wheat exports and above 10% of corn, Dvorak noted.
Attacks on Russian and Ukrainian ports, loading terminals, and shipping — along with broader disruption to Black Sea and Sea of Azov grain corridors — put roughly 86 million tonnes of annual export capacity at stake: 52 million tonnes from Russia and 34 million tonnes from Ukraine. That equates to nearly 17% of global cereal exports, per the report.
Wheat spike and downstream effects
Wheat, a fertiliser-intensive crop, faces the most acute pressure. Prices are expected to surge 36% year on year to $6.92 per bushel — roughly 27 kilograms of wheat — during the third quarter of 2026. The grain feeds into an enormous range of processed foods, from bread and pasta to breakfast cereals and biscuits.
"For fresh food, mainly fruit and vegetables, the impact will be relatively swift and likely visible in consumer prices in two to three months. For processed food, the lags tend to be longer, given the time for harvest and processing. There, we expect the peak impact on consumer prices in around six to nine months' time," Dvorak said.
Risks beyond the forecast
The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation reported that global food commodity prices stood 1% above year-earlier levels in July, with cereal prices up 6.9% and vegetable-oil prices up approximately 17.3%. Because Oxford Economics' index tracks commodity prices rather than retail shelf prices, a commodity increase does not translate one-for-one into supermarket inflation. The projected 2026 rise remains below the 14.2% spike recorded in 2022.
"The most severe impact will be in crops — grains, fruit and vegetables — and dairy," Dvorak told Euronews Business, adding that these are the most severely affected by droughts and heat. "This will also feed into prices of processed products — bread, cheese, wine or oil," he continued.
Jed Cartledge, an agricultural commodities economist at Oxford Economics, cautioned that the shock could prove more severe than modelled, since the full consequences of Black Sea attacks are still unfolding and a strong El Niño threatens crops well beyond Europe. He added, however, that elevated wheat prices could render costlier alternative export routes commercially viable, partially offsetting some of the disruption.
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