Latvia’s pro-European ruling party wins election as populists gain ground
Latvia’s governing party secures a decisive election victory
Poinews.com – Latvia’s centre-right United List has emerged as the clear winner of the country’s parliamentary election, giving Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs a powerful mandate only months after he took office. With more than 99.9% of ballots counted, the party had received 35.4% of the vote and was set to take 42 seats in the 100-member Saeima.
The result marks a post-independence record for United List and points toward continuity in Latvia’s pro-European and pro-Ukrainian policies. It also reshapes the political landscape, with populist parties making significant gains amid public anxiety about security, household costs and long-standing economic pressures.
Kulbergs became prime minister in May and said the scale of the victory exceeded his expectations, while matching the direction indicated by exit polls.
“That means people truly want change,”
He said the vote reflected a demand for “economic growth” and “a future for (Latvia’s) children.”
Coalition talks expected to bring change
Although United List won the largest share of support, its existing governing arrangement is not expected to continue unchanged. Pre-election surveys had suggested the coalition would lose strength, and the outcome leaves one current partner at risk of losing its parliamentary presence altogether. Other coalition members also performed less strongly than they had hoped.
The result gives Kulbergs a strong position in negotiations, but it does not automatically settle the question of who will form the next government. Latvia’s fragmented parliament often requires parties to build broad agreements, and the political divide between mainstream pro-European forces and populist movements is likely to be central to those discussions.
For many voters, the election was shaped by two overlapping concerns: Latvia’s security on NATO’s eastern frontier and the rising cost of everyday life. The country has been a member of both the European Union and NATO since 2004, and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than four years ago has kept defence at the centre of national debate.
Latvia, one of the Baltic states, regards Russia as its primary security challenge and has substantially increased defence spending in response. Most parties expected to enter parliament support continued military investment and aid for Kyiv, indicating that the broad direction of foreign and security policy is unlikely to change.
“Because we are the external border of Europe, we must have a strong economy... a strong border region,”
Kulbergs said.
“That is the main task.”
Populist parties benefit from voter frustration
Two populist forces performed particularly well. Latvia First, a conservative party led by a property magnate frequently compared with US President Donald Trump, was on course to finish second. Sovereign Power, which focused heavily on cost-of-living concerns, appeared likely to take third place.
Their success reflects frustration that extends beyond foreign policy. Higher prices, modest wages, pressure on the healthcare system and a long-running decline in population were all major themes during the campaign. These issues have direct consequences for households, especially outside the capital, and gave populist parties an opportunity to appeal to voters dissatisfied with the pace of economic improvement.
Sovereign Power stands apart from most of the expected parliamentary parties on defence and Ukraine. It opposes further increases in military spending and rejects military assistance for Kyiv. Critics have described the party as pro-Russian, while leading political groups have largely ruled out joining it in government.
That isolation may limit Sovereign Power’s ability to shape a governing coalition, even if its election result gives it a more prominent parliamentary platform. Its support nevertheless signals that economic concerns can compete with, and sometimes intensify, debates over national security.
Russian-speaking voters reshape party competition
Changes among Latvia’s Russian-speaking minority, which accounts for roughly one-third of the population, also helped alter the result. The community had traditionally provided strong backing to Harmony, a party widely viewed as sympathetic to Russia and once the country’s largest political force.
Harmony’s position deteriorated sharply in the previous parliamentary election, held soon after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The party lost all representation in parliament, leaving an opening for other groups to compete for voters who had previously supported it.
Latvia First and Sovereign Power were seen as beneficiaries of that shift. Their gains show that the old pattern of support among Russian-speaking voters is no longer centred on a single party, while also highlighting the continuing political importance of identity, language and security questions in Latvian public life.
United List’s victory gives Kulbergs an opportunity to argue that a pro-European course can coexist with action on domestic strains. His challenge will be to translate a strong electoral result into a stable governing majority while addressing concerns over incomes, public services and demographic decline.
The election result also underlines Latvia’s strategic place in Europe. As a Baltic country bordering Russia, its choices on defence, support for Ukraine and economic resilience carry weight beyond its borders. A government led by United List is expected to maintain the country’s firm alignment with the EU, NATO and Kyiv, even as a stronger populist presence promises more contentious political debate at home.
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