The change vote turns: Why America’s midterms could punish the party that promised it
Economic anxiety and unfinished wars reshape the midterm contest
Poinews.com – With less than a week left before Americans vote, the midterm elections have become a test of whether the political demand for change has shifted against the party that rode it into office. Every House seat is being contested, along with 35 Senate seats, in a campaign whose effects could be felt well beyond Washington, including in Brussels.
Republicans hold only a slim edge in the House, with 219 seats to Democrats’ 214, while their Senate advantage stands at 53 seats to 47. That makes the election especially consequential for President Donald Trump, whose party could lose the congressional leverage it gained after his return to the White House.
A message that has changed hands
In 2024, Trump’s path back to power was driven by voters focused on prices, household finances and dissatisfaction with the status quo. Exit polling from ABC News showed that 28% of voters considered delivering necessary change the most important trait in a candidate. Trump carried that group by 74% to 24%.
The economy was even more central. NBC News exit polling identified it as the leading concern for 32% of voters, and Trump won those voters 81% to 18%. Republicans converted that energy into congressional gains, taking Senate seats in West Virginia, Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The victories removed Democratic incumbents including Sherrod Brown and Bob Casey and returned the chamber to Republican control.
Now the party that promised disruption is responsible for governing, and Democrats are seeking to make the election a referendum on the results. The central challenge for Republicans is that the same appetite for change that helped them in 2024 may no longer work in their favour.
Inflation returns to the centre of debate
Inflation has become a major vulnerability. It stood at 2.7% in November 2024, when Trump was elected, but reached 3.7% in September after rising from 3.4% in August. Higher energy costs have been a major factor in the increase.
Trump once enjoyed a comparatively strong reputation on economic management. When he left office in 2021, his economic approval rating was positive, 48% to 41%. In the 2024 election, voters trusted him over Kamala Harris on the economy by 53% to 46% in NBC News exit polling.
That advantage has deteriorated sharply. The CNBC All-America Economic Survey put approval of Trump’s economic handling at 34%, while 65% disapproved. It was his weakest result on the issue in either term and a deeper negative rating than Joe Biden’s lowest showing.
Reuters/Ipsos polling also pointed to a reversal that would once have appeared improbable: 37% of voters said Democrats had the stronger economic approach, compared with 33% who chose Republicans. The same survey placed Trump’s overall approval at 32%.
The cost of conflict
Foreign policy has added to the pressure. Trump repeatedly made ending wars a key part of his 2024 pitch. On Ukraine alone, he promised at least 53 times that the conflict could be resolved within 24 hours or before he took office.
Instead, Russia’s war in Ukraine continues. The latest cited breakthrough has been a local humanitarian ceasefire in the occupied town of Oleshky. In Gaza, many commitments linked to a ceasefire remain unfulfilled one year after Trump declared the war over.
In February, Trump joined Israel in launching strikes on Iran, opening a new conflict with no visible end nearly eight months later. At a Texas rally on Tuesday, he told supporters that the war would finish “whenever I want it to end.”
“Whenever I want it to end.”
Public opposition emerged immediately. A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll found that 56% of Americans opposed the war during its first week. Pew Research recorded disapproval of Trump’s handling of it rising from 61% in March to 65%. By September, more than 60% told Fox News that beginning the war had been the wrong choice.
The conflict’s consequences are particularly tangible at fuel stations. Regular gasoline averaged $4.25 per gallon, compared with $2.98 before the war, while diesel rose from $3.76 to $6.35. AAA said this was the first October in which average gasoline prices exceeded $4 per gallon.
Rural voters face a sharper squeeze
Fuel inflation touches nearly every household, but diesel prices create particular hardship for farmers, ranchers and truck drivers, many of whom form a core part of Trump’s rural support. Their vehicles, equipment and supply chains depend heavily on diesel, meaning higher costs can spread through agricultural production and freight transport.
Trump has argued that the broader economic picture remains exceptionally strong. Speaking at a Tennessee rally this month, he compared the present economy with his first term.
“Our first term, we had the greatest economy in the history of our country, and we’re blowing it away.”
As oil prices rose in March, he struck a similarly optimistic tone on Truth Social.
“When oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.”
But voters appear unconvinced. CNBC found that eight in ten Americans described the economy as either fair or poor. For candidates facing tight races, that judgement may matter more than broad claims about economic strength.
The pressure is not confined to energy policy. In late August, Trump paused certain beef tariffs for 90 days, another issue with direct relevance for agricultural producers and consumers. As Election Day approaches, Republicans must persuade voters that their agenda remains the answer to rising living costs and international instability.
The outcome will determine more than control of Congress. It will show whether the coalition that gave Trump and Republicans their 2024 victories still believes change has arrived—or whether it is ready to demand it again.
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