Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi foils Russia’s plan to encircle the Donbas, ISW analysis shows
Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi Foils Russian Encirclement Plan in Donbas
Poinews.com – Ukraine s Operation Vivaldi foils a Russian plan to encircle Ukrainian-held territory in the Donetsk region, according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Ukraine’s counter-offensive near Lyman disrupted the northern side of a proposed Russian pincer movement aimed at the country’s heavily defended “fortress belt” in the Donbas.
The ISW said Russia had sought to advance south from Lyman while launching a second push from the Pokrovsk-Dobropillia area in the south-west. The two axes were expected to converge near Barvinkove in the Kharkiv region, placing greater pressure on Ukrainian positions and supply routes.
A successful operation could have brought Moscow closer to its stated goal of occupying all of Donetsk region. It also could have provided the Kremlin with a major territorial claim after the heavy personnel and equipment losses sustained during the war.
How Operation Vivaldi changed the Lyman front
Ukraine’s operation near Lyman targeted the northern arm of Russia’s intended encirclement. Ukrainian forces advanced along the Ridkodub-Nove-Novomykhailivka route in the north and on the Yarova-Drobysheve-Stavky axis farther south, breaking up a Russian salient that had threatened Sloviansk from the north-east.
Ukraine s Operation Vivaldi foils the immediate northern threat while helping Ukraine retain terrain and routes important to its broader defensive position in the Donbas. Russian forces were reportedly pushed into a more defensive posture following the Ukrainian advances.
Andrii Biletskyi, commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps, said the first three phases of the operation, conducted from mid-September to late September, liberated 176 square kilometres. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave a lower estimate on 3 October, saying between 125 and 140 square kilometres had been liberated, while adding that Russian losses had risen sharply over the previous two or three months.
The ISW suggested that Ukraine’s gains could be greater than Kyiv’s public estimates. Its central conclusion was that the campaign denied Russia its immediate ability to threaten the northern approaches to Ukraine’s defensive belt through the original pincer plan.
Russia faces pressure on the south-western axis
With the Lyman thrust disrupted, Russian forces advancing from the Pokrovsk-Dobropillia sector face a more difficult task. Rather than operating as part of a coordinated encirclement, the south-western push would have to achieve substantially larger objectives without a northern link-up.
The ISW described the loss of the Lyman pincer as an operational setback, not simply a routine change along the front line. Russia has lost an important element of its plan to pressure Ukraine’s interconnected defensive and logistical network across the Donbas.
Russian forces have continued to make limited gains near Kostyantynivka and east of Sloviansk, but the ISW said they have struggled to sustain momentum. Infantry infiltration, drone strikes and bombardment can create attritional pressure, the assessment said, but they are less suited to the rapid mechanised movement needed for a large-scale breakthrough.
The situation remains fluid. Russia may adapt its tactics or shift resources to other sectors, and further mobilisation or technological changes could influence the battlefield. However, Ukraine s Operation Vivaldi foils the specific encirclement approach assessed by the ISW and makes a rapid Russian breakthrough more difficult.
ISW disputes Russian claims on territorial gains
The assessment also challenged Russian accounts of territorial progress during September. Pro-government media claimed Russian troops captured an additional 1,301 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory, a figure roughly two and a half times higher than estimates reported in previous months.
Using geolocated images and videos, satellite imagery and other visually verified evidence, the ISW concluded that Russian assault units were driven from at least 80 square kilometres during September. It estimated Russia’s net territorial retreat for the month at 175.18 square kilometres, including areas Russian forces briefly entered but did not hold.
Territorial claims remain important to Russia’s domestic narrative about the war. President Vladimir Putin told the Valdai Club that Russian forces controlled 89% of Donetsk region, while the ISW estimated that Russian occupation covered no more than 81% of the region.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was Russia’s proposed encirclement plan?
The plan involved advances from the Lyman area in the north and the Pokrovsk-Dobropillia sector in the south-west, with the aim of linking up near Barvinkove and placing Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk region under greater pressure.
Why is Operation Vivaldi important for Ukraine?
The operation disrupted the northern part of the proposed Russian pincer movement, reduced the immediate threat to Sloviansk from the north-east and helped protect routes linked to Ukraine’s wider Donbas defence.
Did the operation end fighting in the Donbas?
No. Russian forces continue to operate near Kostyantynivka and east of Sloviansk, and the front line remains active. The ISW assessment indicates that Russia’s larger encirclement design was set back, not that fighting has stopped.