Boeing shares tumble after it releases cautious growth forecast

Boeing’s cautious production outlook sends shares lower

Poinews.com – Boeing’s effort to rebuild its finances and industrial stability faced fresh investor pressure on Tuesday after the aircraft maker set out a slower-than-expected timetable for increasing 737 MAX production. Its shares fell by about 9% as Wall Street weighed the gap between recent programme progress and the company’s longer route to stronger cash generation.

Chief executive Kelly Ortberg said Boeing does not expect to produce 52 737 MAX aircraft a month until the second half of 2027. Before reaching that level, the company intends to establish a dependable output rate of 47 jets per month, a milestone Ortberg indicated will take into next year to fully secure.

“We’re making progress, but we still have more work to do, and I’m expecting it’ll take us into next year to get fully stable at this rate,” Ortberg said.

Investors have closely watched MAX production because a sustained increase in aircraft deliveries is central to Boeing’s revenue, profitability and cash-flow recovery. The slower timetable suggested that the benefits of improving certification prospects and new defence business may take longer to appear in financial results than many analysts had anticipated.

Stability takes precedence over speed

Ortberg defended the company’s approach, arguing that Boeing must make its production ramp reliable rather than simply chase a monthly target. He pointed to the need for more predictable wing production and fuselage work at its Kansas operation as areas that require greater consistency.

“It’s more important that we do this ramp right than what particular month we achieve a rate break,” Ortberg said.

The chief executive acknowledged the market’s desire for a faster recovery but stressed that Boeing would remain disciplined. That message comes after years in which the company has faced intense scrutiny over manufacturing quality, safety oversight and the resilience of its supply network.

Ortberg took over as Boeing’s chief executive in August 2024, following a difficult period marked by two fatal 737 MAX crashes and a January 2024 incident involving a 737 MAX flight in which a window blew out during the journey. Boeing had been criticised over concerns that short-term financial priorities had weakened its focus on safety and quality.

For readers watching the company’s recovery, the production timeline matters because building more planes only improves results when suppliers, factories, inspections and deliveries can operate predictably together. A rushed increase could create new disruption, while a steadier ramp could help Boeing restore confidence with regulators, airlines and investors.

Cash-flow target set for 2029

Ortberg also provided a clearer timetable for Boeing’s longer-term financial recovery. The company expects annual free cash flow to reach $10 billion (€8.98bn) in 2029, a target that became another focus for investors after some had expected a quicker return to that level.

Boeing forecasts free cash flow of roughly $2 billion (€1.7bn) in 2026, rising to $6 billion (€5.2bn) in 2028 before reaching $10 billion in 2029. The company expects higher cash-flow levels after that point.

“Everybody wants us to go faster. I get that, but we’re going to stay disciplined as we ramp up here,” Ortberg said.

The forecast arrives as Boeing’s quarterly figures showed substantial improvement from the previous year, although profitability remains under pressure. The company recorded a third-quarter loss of $116 million (€100m), compared with a $5.3 billion (€4.6bn) loss in the same period a year earlier. Delays to certification of the 777X, Boeing’s latest long-range wide-body aircraft, accounted for much of the prior-year loss.

The latest quarterly earnings translated into a larger per-share loss than analysts had expected, but the market reaction became more pronounced after Ortberg’s outlook for production and cash flow was released.

Progress in certification and defence

Despite the cautious production message, Boeing highlighted several developments it sees as evidence that its recovery is advancing. Ortberg cited Federal Aviation Administration certification of the 737 MAX 7 and 737 MAX 10, as well as what he described as a “transformational” Pentagon award connected to the US Navy’s next-generation fighter jets.

Quarterly revenue rose 4% to $24.2 billion (€20.9bn). Growth came from higher deliveries in Boeing’s defence, space and security unit and increased sales at Boeing Global Services. Commercial-aircraft revenue declined from a year earlier, however, even as Boeing delivered 161 aircraft during the quarter, one more than in the comparable 2025 period.

Boeing executives also said they remain confident that the delayed 777X will receive certification in 2027. The company expects to deliver between 10 and 15 of the wide-body aircraft next year.

“We’re providing this with confidence that the team’s ready to go execute,” Ortberg said of the latest targets.

Aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia of AeroDynamic Advisory described Boeing’s recovery as “slow but steady,” while warning that its supply chain remains a significant issue and is only partly within the company’s direct control. That constraint helps explain why the company is placing emphasis on stabilising production before attempting a larger increase.

Ortberg said Boeing had made major advances during the past two years in restoring trust, reducing risk and reshaping its culture around safety and quality. He added that the company had deliberately avoided becoming overly optimistic while important uncertainties remained around production rates, certification schedules and programme execution.

“But we appreciate that it’s been difficult for shareholders to assess how our progress will translate into financial performance. We’re now at a point where the range of outcomes is narrowing,” he said.

The immediate share-price decline showed that investors wanted faster evidence of the turnaround in Boeing’s earnings and cash generation. Boeing’s leadership, however, is signalling that the next phase of its recovery will be measured by consistency as much as speed.