From Regime Change to Regime Deal? Tehran’s Political Divides Over US-Iran Agreement
Poinews.com – Iran’s conservative factions are framing the recently disclosed US-Iran framework deal as a testament to their resilience against Washington’s pressures, despite lingering doubts about the extent of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’s influence on its terms. The agreement, which includes provisions for lifting sanctions and resuming oil exports, has been hailed by hardliners as a strategic triumph. However, the deal’s impact on Iran’s domestic politics remains a point of contention, with some questioning whether it reflects genuine compromise or continued resistance.
IRGC’s Regional Influence
Esmail Qaani, the Quds Force commander of the IRGC, made a rare public appearance on Monday to voice his views. He claimed that the Bab al-Mandeb Strait—connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden—remains under the control of Hezbollah, Houthis in Yemen, and other regional resistance groups. This declaration highlights the IRGC’s ongoing role in shaping Iran’s geopolitical strategy, even as the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, is no longer under blockade.
“We are in a full-scale hybrid war, and we must use this opportunity to become stronger,” said Ebrahim Rezaei, a parliament official representing the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee.
The Quds Force, a key intelligence arm of the IRGC, is credited with building the Axis of Resistance—a coalition of armed groups across the Middle East. This network includes Hamas in Gaza, Houthis in Yemen, and Shia militias in Iraq, all of which receive support from Tehran. The deal’s success in securing maritime access underscores the IRGC’s ability to leverage regional alliances for domestic political gain.
Domestic Power Struggles
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has long argued that IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi and his allies have used the Hormuz dispute to consolidate power within Iran. This control has reportedly extended to influencing parliamentary figures and shaping the country’s broader diplomatic stance. While the political leadership sought a rapid agreement to ease economic strain, the IRGC resisted, maintaining its dominance in key decision-making processes.
Iran’s state media are expected to emphasize the deal’s absence of commitments to regime change or political reform. Instead, they will highlight economic gains such as sanctions relief and the resumption of oil exports. Recent reports confirm that three Iranian tankers carrying 5 million barrels of crude passed through the Strait of Hormuz following Trump’s announcement of the naval blockade’s lifting.
Reactions from the Opposition
Among Iran’s political elite, the deal’s implications are not universally accepted. Rezaei criticized the agreement, calling it “unbalanced” and pointing out that Iran’s core demands were not fully addressed. Meanwhile, exiled opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi, a prominent leader abroad, view the deal as a failure. “Any deal with this regime will ultimately fail,” Pahlavi stated in an ITV News interview. “It can never be trusted. It will continue to blackmail the world, brave, innocent Iranians, and spread terror and instability globally.”
US Vice President JD Vance recently addressed concerns about the deal’s potential to topple the Islamic Republic. “Trump never said his goal was to install Reza Pahlavi as Iran’s new leader,” he clarified. “What we want is a halt to their nuclear program.”
This moment of reflection comes as Iran prepares to honor late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening strikes of the war on 28 February. The deal’s emphasis on mutual sovereignty and economic concessions is likely to be framed as a hard-won achievement, even as tensions within the country’s leadership persist.
