Euronews explains: The Verdict That Could End Marine Le Pen’s Political Career
Poinews.com – The outcome of a pending ruling at the Paris Court of Appeal on Tuesday could determine the future of Marine Le Pen’s political trajectory and significantly influence the 2027 French presidential race. The court is set to decide whether to maintain her five-year suspension from public office, which stems from accusations of misusing European Union funds. If the decision stands, Le Pen’s hopes of securing the presidency may be extinguished, paving the way for Jordan Bardella to emerge as the National Rally’s (RN) most probable candidate.
The Legal Case
In March 2025, a Paris criminal court found Le Pen guilty of redirecting European Parliament funds between 2004 and 2016. The party, then known as the National Front, was alleged to have paid parliamentary assistants who were actually working for the party instead of representing Members of the European Parliament. Le Pen has argued that this practice was a valid method of “pooling” resources and that she acted with “good faith,” insisting she had “never felt [she] had committed an offence.”
The appeals court now faces the task of upholding or overturning the March ruling, which included a four-year prison sentence—two years suspended and two under electronic monitoring—as well as a €100,000 fine. The five-year ban on public office, which takes effect immediately, would prevent her from running in the 2027 election, widely seen as her best opportunity to win the presidency.
Potential Outcomes
If the verdict confirms her ineligibility, Bardella, the RN’s current leader, would likely take over as the party’s presidential candidate. However, the court could opt to acquit Le Pen or reduce her ban to two years or less, allowing her to re-enter the race. Legal analysts suggest that shortening her ban might be seen as a form of preferential treatment compared to others with similar convictions.
Le Pen’s eligibility to run again depends on the court’s decision. Having already served 15 months of her suspended sentence, she would regain the right to campaign as early as 31 March 2027—just over two weeks before the first round of voting. Despite this, her most ardent supporters remain divided on whether she can still mount a viable challenge.
Bardella’s Rise
With Le Pen’s potential exclusion, Bardella’s position as the RN’s likely presidential candidate has strengthened. Recent polls indicate he leads her by a narrow margin, though Le Pen retains significant influence within the party. She has publicly endorsed Bardella, vowing to support him “every day,” “with great energy,” and “with great conviction and confidence.”
Bardella, a 30-year-old member of the European Parliament, contrasts with Le Pen in experience and ideology. While she has long claimed to transcend traditional political labels, Bardella aligns more closely with right-wing values, stating he “shares the essential values” of “right-wing voters.” This distinction may shape the party’s messaging as it prepares for the upcoming election.
The Path Forward
The ruling, expected at 13:30 on Tuesday, could redefine the political landscape in France less than a year before the presidential vote. TF1 has confirmed Le Pen will appear on its evening news bulletin once the decision is announced. Many within the National Rally are eager for clarity, with reports suggesting Bardella might declare his candidacy within days if the ban is upheld.
“Whatever happens, I will not be dead; whatever happens, I will continue to fight for my ideas,” Le Pen told LCI.
Whether the court’s decision favors Le Pen or Bardella, the implications for the 2027 election will be profound. The outcome may not only determine the next president but also reshape the National Rally’s internal dynamics and its broader appeal to French voters.
