EU set to bow to fresh US tariffs as trade regime nears expiration
Poinews.com – The European Union is preparing to accept new tariffs the United States is expected to impose in the coming days over forced labour, as long as they do not exceed the 15 percent cap agreed under the Turnberry agreement, the European Commission said. This development marks a significant moment in transatlantic trade relations, as the EU set to bow to fresh American trade measures that could reshape commercial exchanges between the two economic powers. The White House said in early June that it would impose fresh duties on its global trading partners, arguing that insufficient efforts to curb trade in goods produced using forced labour were harming US commercial interests.
The current US tariff regime expires on Friday, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Tuesday that implementation of the forced labour duties was imminent. European officials are closely monitoring the level of the new tariffs, as an EU-US trade agreement signed in July 2025 in Turnberry, Scotland, by US President Donald Trump and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen caps US duties on EU goods at 15 percent. “Of course we do not agree with the findings on forced labour, and we’ve made that very clear to our United States counterparts,” an EU senior official said. “But the main objective is to make sure that the agreement is respected and that our companies can benefit from the stability and predictability that was set out there.”
Understanding the tariff framework
The Trump administration imposed 10 percent duties on its global trading partners last February after a US Supreme Court ruling declared its 2025 tariffs illegal. Added to the pre-existing Most-Favoured-Nation duties, those tariffs mean the EU is currently paying average duties close to the 15 percent ceiling set by the Turnberry agreement. However, the current legal basis for the US tariff regime does not allow it to remain in force for more than 150 days – that is, until 24 July – unless Congress approves an extension, which is considered unlikely ahead of the US midterm elections.
As part of its effort to replace the current regime, the US Trade Department launched an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 into forced labour in global supply chains, which is due to be concluded in the coming days. This investigation represents a critical component of the broader trade strategy that has positioned the EU set to bow to fresh American demands regarding labour standards in international commerce.
“We expect to see some action soon,” Greer said on Tuesday on CNBC. “I can’t really specify a timeline right now – I have a responsibility to brief Congress and other stakeholders before I really reveal that kind of thing. But we do expect action soon on that front.”
In early June, the Commission defended its regulations, saying it had strict rules against products made with forced labour. “The EU considers tariffs imposed on these grounds to be unjustified,” Olof Gill, the Commission’s deputy chief spokesperson, said in a statement at the time. And yet, the Commission now appears to consider there is no better option than ensuring the Turnberry agreement is respected. This pragmatic approach demonstrates why the EU set to bow to fresh tariffs rather than risk a broader trade confrontation with Washington.
As Trump also threatened on Tuesday to impose 100 percent tariffs on generic drugs imported into the US in two years, rising to 200 percent a year later, a Commission spokesperson said on Wednesday that those medicines were exempted under the EU-US deal. “The US Section 232 Proclamation of 2 April confirmed this commitment, and we expect the US will continue to uphold this commitment,” the spokesperson added. These developments underscore the complexity of the current trade relationship and the careful balancing act required as the EU set to bow to fresh American trade policies while protecting its own commercial interests.
